Abstract Summary
Urban areas are facing increasing challenges from extreme weather events caused by climate change. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emphasizes the alteration of weather patterns, resulting in higher frequency and intensity of weather extremes. This phenomenon is evident in the Netherlands, as observed in the summers of 2021 and 2022, characterized by prolonged periods of drought and severe rainfall. Given these changes, there is a pressing need to adapt urban landscapes to improve resilience against such extremes. In the past , the Netherlands has largely focused on flood prevention and water drainage systems. However, little attention has been given to the implementation of drought-resilient water management systems that are becoming increasingly important for our societal resource management and infrastructure. We propose a mathematical optimization framework to evaluate mitigation strategies to address drought in urban green infrastructure. Our approach integrates local soil and vegetation characteristics with future climate scenarios obtained from the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI). The model considers key physical processes such as soil moisture balance and evapotranspiration, as well as different vegetation types and soil parameters, including leaf area, rooting depth and soil water retention capacity. The model allows for a comprehensive analysis of the complex relationships among these factors and their dynamics under future climate conditions. As such, it shows their relation and impact on the system resilience against drought. The model is validated through a case study in the Bajeskwartier in Amsterdam Venserpolder. The findings reveal the model efficacy in determining the minimum irrigation requirements and the necessary water storage capacity to prevent plant stress. The model can be used by urban planners and policymakers seeking effective strategies to enhance urban drought resilience in the face of changing climate. Through analysis, the study demonstrates that the Bajeskwartier possesses adequate water storage capacity to meet the demand during a 1-in-30-year drought scenario projected for the year 2085. In the future we will refine the proposed mathematical optimization framework by performing additional analyses and validation of different soil parameters, vegetation types and associated physical processes. Further, we will enhance the temporal and spatial resolution of the model. Finally, we will examine its applicability by testing it against a broader range of urban environments and climate conditions.
