Abstract Summary
The decision-making process in adaptive reuse projects is often complex, involving multiple and conflicting criteria, and diverse stakeholders. To deal with such complexity, the alternatives being evaluated by these stakeholders have been inadvertently reduced to two extremes: either a broad scope, focusing solely on functional use, or a narrow focus, delving into specific design options. This is a limitation in the current decision making process, as it can hinder the effectiveness of choices, their speed, and quality. There is a need to balance these two extremes and create a more generative overview of options that provide decision makers with a tangible outlook of what is possible and desirable when pursuing adaptive reuse. To improve tangibility, normative scenarios have gained traction as a valuable tool for aiding decision-makers in managing complexity, uncertainties, evaluating risks, fostering creativity, and encouraging open dialogue. Normative scenarios are scenarios that depict preferable future visions without transgressing the realm of the possible and they can include the active involvement of participants which either have an invested interest or a relevant expertise. Despite their advantages, one of the challenges encountered when employing normative scenarios through quantitative methods, is that they are difficult to translate into practice. Conversely, relying solely on qualitative methods when developing normative scenarios can undermine the generalizability of their outcomes. To overcome this challenge in this study, we propose a mixed-methods approach that combines the robustness of CIB analysis with the creativity fostered in scenario planning workshops. This study began with a CIB analysis aimed at obtaining raw scenarios enhanced with circular building principles. Then through a series of creative foresighting workshops, new narratives and visuals were created to improve their tangibility and communicability. In total, 10 normative narrative scenarios were developed that represent desirable future states for the circular adaptive reuse of buildings. These scenarios contribute to initial efforts in future-making of concrete circular adaptive reuse approaches. They could accelerate the current adaptive reuse process by being integrated into a multi-criteria decision-making model. By using the proposed mixed-method approach we contribute to the novel field of participatory CIB scenario development, and show the potential it holds for the circularity domain.
